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Why have Lincoln Forecasts under Golden 3 been removed?

Following extensive back-testing we were able to determine that price valuations / specific forecasting of numbers did not contribute to outperformance. This was also true of our own Lincoln Forecasts. This is not to say that our team (or the broader market) did a poor job at forecasting. Rather it highlights the difficulty (the impossible task) of being able to accurately forecast the future, and from the research team's perspective we were able to provide little insight above and beyond the market consensus view that improved the accuracy of any specific forecast number.

As an aside what we did find valuable in our testing was the shift in forecasts, something that we observe as part of our Active Risk assessment.

But on account of the above revelations uncovered as part of our testing, we will no longer provide Lincoln forecasts/estimates as part of Golden Rule 3 - Outlook. Rather we will channel our analyst resources into the new assessment and interpretation of GR3 as being an understanding of the drivers behind the market (consensus) view of a company and now increased in importance, a more detailed understanding of the current Active Risks to forecasts that a company is facing. We believe, based on our testing, that this outcome will deliver better value to members of the long-term.

The Golden Rule 3 definition is now as follows:

To determine whether a company's fundamental performance is sustainable, a qualitative analysis of the company's outlook and
active risks is required.

For growth opportunities, we examine the stock's outlook and assess current active risks, and their impact on the company's Star Growth Stock qualifiers should they become elevated. If they threaten to impact the company's ability to grow in the future, we
will remove it as a Star Growth Stock.

For income opportunities, the earnings profile of the company must be stable, to sustain an above market yield, and hopefully
increase the likelihood of dividend rises into the future. Should active risks threaten the future dividend, or create possible business stress, then it will be removed as a Star Income Stock.