Once a fundamentally superior stock has been identified then investors may wish to focus on stocks with a positive share price trend.
To assist investors with their exit and re-entry strategies based on their sensitivity to drawdowns, Stock Doctor has developed two technical price trend indicators SDMAX and SD30TSR. Both of these indicators can be accessed within the companies 9 Golden Rules screen and in the Advanced Charting Tool.
You can chart the percentage of shares a company has shorted against it under Golden Rule 4 to help monitor the level of short-interest in the business and whether that is contributing to current price sentiment. When there is a spike in the amount of short interest and/or there is a consistent high level of short interest, it can mean negative sentiment exists and that the stock may be in for a period of extreme volatility.
Which Stock Doctor technical price trend indicator to use will depend on how sensitive you are to significant price declines:
SDMAX - Stock Doctor 20/65-day High/Low Moving Average crossover (daily) indicator is suitable for those who are highly trend sensitive and are therefore willing to be very active in the management of their portfolio. This indicator is based on the high and low of a 20 day (fast) and 65 day (slow) simple moving averages. Click here to learn more.
SD30TSR - Stock Doctor Trailing Stop loss 30% exit / 30% re-entry (daily) indicator is suitable for those that are moderately trend sensitive to price declines but are still prepared to let the stock price fall 30% to avoid churn. Click here to learn more.
Be wary of stocks whose share prices are historically volatile, under-performing its peers, sector or indices, or trending downwards. A positive trend indicates the markets appreciation for the stock, its business and the industry it is in.
Golden Rule #4 - Share price sentiment can play an important role in portfolio construction because a negative share price trend can signal underlying fundamental problems within the company.
It is important to note that share price sentiment plays no role in the decision-making process of a value investor. However, looking at stocks on value only can be a highly risk strategy due to the potential for “value” traps.
Income seeking investors, particularly volatility averse investors, prefer stable share prices with minimal spikes or shifts in price. Dividend maximisers however don't mind volatility as a decline in price often makes the dividend yield more attractive.
Notwithstanding the above, should a Star Stock’s share price fall, however remain fundamentally sound with its active risks remain under control, then a declining price may represent an opportunity to acquire the business at a cheaper level.
What does share price sentiment show us?
It demonstrates whether the market likes:
- the business
- the company’s current operations; and
- the industry the company operates in
Share price sentiment can help identify previous issues or good news the company has had that may warrant further investigation.
Important Information: Information presented in this SD30TSR Helpfile (Communication) is as 6 October 2020 unless otherwise indicated.
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